I dont think it's going to be that difficult with the techonology they have in place

Without an app store its going to be difficult for any phone to take share away from the iphone.

They are going to have a hard time competing if they don't open one up soon.

Recently, my friend and I developed a G1 application as a required senior project at Cal Poly Pomona called 'mTools.'  I would appreciate it greatly if you can check out this website:
      mhome.guiang.net/cpp
Mtools is -
-Store/Manage files on your cell phone
-Upload/download files
-Synchronize files
-Share files
-Backup files

My blog on the billing issue: http://tinyurl.com/3f7wrl

Tricia,

Android's open approval process, and focus on free applications, will help raise the visibility of the free app model, which GetJar has always supported.  We applaud Android's approach, because it will draw more creativity into mobile development.

Looks more like a 50/50 split:

"A baseline for the developer’s initial cut is 50 percent, and then based on certain perimeters, it may increase to 70 percent (remember, the App store currently has an across the board 70/30 split with developers). First off, the revenue split is determined by the amount of bandwidth the applications use, but developers can boost up their percentage by abiding to a couple of rules. The first is by providing customer care through at least two access points, such as a phone number and email. Another way is by supporting at least 10 T-Mobile devices, two of which being the most popular in the network."

You'll still have the problem of dealing with multiple carriers across different territories.

Not having paid-apps from day one is also a issue.

Hey William, thanks for the comment. So, everything is unknown at this point…we have no idea how much the carrier (in this circumstance, T-Mobile) will ask for in a revenue split. However, if their current devPartner Community is any judge, they are allowing developers to keep up to 70 percent of the revenues, depending on customer service and bandwidth conditions. Right now, it doesn't include Android, but I suppose that's because Android has it's own market. You can read about the details here: http://www.moconews.net/entry/419-ctia-t-mobile-usa-outlines-details-of-its-developer-program-mum-on-its-
And, yes, that's just for T-Mobile. Obviously, it's Android's intent to be on as many carriers as possible.
Hope that helps,
Tricia

In regards to the billing:

"It will purely be an arrangement between the carrier and the mobile app developer. It is unknown what the revenue-share agreement will be between the carrier and a developer."

Do you realize that the carrier cut is typically 45% or more of a transaction?  What's more, the terms are typically net 60 to 90 days.  Also, if you sell in multiple territories, then you have to deal with multiple carriers.

This seems like a mistake to me.

Comments?