Everyone seems to guessing when Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) will release Windows Mobile 7, the latest overhaul of its mobile operating system. Now the newest version may not be in consumers’ hands until 2010, VentureBeat reports just days after CNET reported next summer would be its earliest arrival. But who really knows—there’s plenty of crystal balling to go around. VentureBeat seems to have simply done the math and accurately points out that Windows Mobile partners will have to test a final version of the OS a few months before distribution can begin. And still, even with Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) selling 10-12 million iPhones this year, Microsoft is eating them for breakfast with 18 million Windows Mobile licenses sold in the last year, SAI points out (Never mind the fact that was 2 million short of the company’s own goal, which it later blamed on delays at some device manufacturers).

Microsoft stands to lose much more than market share if it takes too long to breathe new life into one of the oldest smartphone operating systems on the market. Google (NSDQ: GOOG), Apple and BlackBerry maker Research In Motion are all attracting developers into their camps with fresh operating systems and software developments kit. By the end of next month, developers will have three completely renovated operating systems to chose from – all of which will be less than six months old from the aforementioned companies – while Microsoft won’t make any significant changes to its OS until late 2009 or early 2010, anywhere from a year to year-and-a-half from now. As long as developers can reach their audiences elsewhere on more capable devices, Microsoft could be in for a dry spell indeed.

To be sure, Microsoft has built up a good business focusing on the enterprise, but Apple has been able to gain ground quickly by attracting the consumer market. Another factor to consider is that soon Windows Mobile will be the only mobile OS that carries a license fee (with Symbian moving to open source). Microsoft could be leaving a large enough window of time for a major shake-up to occur in the smartphone OS race. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) fell from grace in less than a year when handset revenues declined $1 billion and its market share was cut by more than half in a quarter that saw the 100 millionth Razr sold. Plenty still believe and hope the company has something up its sleeve, although Microsoft isn’t providing any hints. Scott Rockfeld, group product manager of Windows Mobile, told VentureBeat the company is “not publicly sharing our roadmap at this point.”

• Windows Mobile 7 Delayed For At Least A Year
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