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Report: The Android Paradox: As Adoption Grows So Does Fragmentation

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image Last week at its annual developers conference, Google’s senior director of mobile platforms, told the audience that at least 18 Android-based phones and as many as 20 would be available for sale by the end of the year. It was a sign that Android was getting some serious traction. But while this was a welcome milestone for the OS, IMS Research analyst Chris Schreck said that the fragmentation that could arise from the widespread adoption could end up being its biggest threat. 

SEE ALSO: T-Mobile USA’s CTO Cole Brodman: Second Android Phone Details Coming in ‘Next Few Weeks’

Specifically, Shreck said that one of Android’s features that appeals to handset makers and mobile network operators is that its license agreement from the Open Handset Alliance (OHA) doesn’t require changes made to the code to be contributed back to the open source community. This was done to allow companies to incorporate their own intellectual property into their Android phones—and thereby differentiate their products from their rivals—without forcing them to share their IP with other OHA members.

“The flip side of that coin,” said Shreck, “is that it also allows for multiple versions of the platform to exist independently of each other.” As more handset makers strive to build differentiated cellphones, more “platform variants” emerge.

IMS predicts that Android has the potential to take a significant share of the smartphone market, and certainly by 2014, the platform could ship on over 43 million handsets. But for Android to achieve this, Schreck said, Google (NSDQ: GOOG) and the OHA will have to deal with the fragmentation issue.

Schreck added that a fragmented Android platform would result in compatibility problems for Android applications and would ultimately push the cost of continued development of the platform to individual handset vendors and mobile network operators, rather than the OHA as a whole. Said Schreck, “Such increased development costs and a fragmented application portfolio would make competing with other open source platforms an uphill battle for Android.”

Jun 3, 2009 7:25 AM ET

Posted In: Gadgets, Technologies / Formats, Operating Systems, Companies, Google

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