Seriously, Arthur Andersen figured this out in 2002 in a report entitled “Digital Content for Global Mobile Services”.  This is hardly new. And they had very good economists modeling this - at the time looking at how a reduction on VAT rates would affect the market if the reduction would be passed on to the consumer.  Contact me if you would like a copy.

While it is true that mobile carriers could be more encouraging of the mobile services and MVNOs, it is important to remember that the mobile market is different to the legacy landline market.  We all know why that is, so no point explaining it, but it means that the Internet model doesn’t map onto mobile.  And just as well.  The interent is such an inherently anti commercial place.  The mobile operators have built a very nice commercial environment for themselves, where they can control the transactions from handset to server.  It is their home; surely the industry should respect that.  Isn’t it just a bit perverse that the outside world, especially the internet industry (that can’t make a buck), is trying to tell the wildly commercially successful mobile industry how to do business?  We should get real about this.  It’s like inviting guests to their home that eat their food, mess up the place, steal things and then invite all their rough friends in as well.