Mobile instant messaging (IM) adoption in Europe is expected to triple, despite network operator fears that IM will eat into the revenues of their lucrative text messaging services, according to a new report from Forrester Research. The technology analysis firm estimates that IM will grow from 8 percent in 2007 to 24 percent by 2013, taking the current subscriber base of 26.7 million to 80 million. The report finds IM’s growth “inevitable”, thanks to the familiarity that young consumers have with PC instant messaging and the growing number of IM capable handsets entering the market.

While mobile IM is expected to displace 13 percent of SMS traffic in the next six years, Forrester found that text messaging will continue to grow as well, with monthly person-to-person (P2P) SMS traffic in Western Europe climbing from 190 billion messages in 2007 to 233 billion by the end of 2013. Forrester advised operators to see mobile IM and SMS as complementary services and that should be integrated to build up a social network offering.

Other points from the study include:

—Sweden and the UK will lead in mobile IM adoption with 35 percent and 31 percent of subscribers using mobile IM respectively by 2013.
—In Sweden, where SMS usage is low and mobile IM uptake high, mobile IM will replace 28 percent of SMS traffic; in Spain, where the opposite is true, it will replace just eight percent of SMS traffic.

Forrester’s mobile IM forecast is based on a survey of 22,000 consumers across France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK.