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@ CTIA: The Data Tsunami Is Here

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While the general observation by everyone is that this year’s CTIA I.T. & Entertainment show is small, it’s not because there isn’t dramatic growth occurring in the industry. The overwhelming theme of this year’s semi-annual conference was over capacity of the networks, and the surge in the number of users owning smartphones and using them to check email, download applications and watch video.

The theme represents a huge change from year’s past when a carrier would never acknowledge the need for more capacity. Now it’s an accepted fact, especially as the government ponders regulating the industry and contemplates whether to release additional spectrum.

The argument was made by just about everyone who stepped out on stage: AT&T’s CTO Jon Donovan said data traffic on AT&T’s network has jumped 5,000 percent over the past 12 quarters. The CTIA released a survey, finding that wireless data revenues made up more than 25 percent of all revenues and that there are more than 40 million official smartphones and 10 million other devices being used in the U.S. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski acknowledged more spectrum was needed. “What happens when everyone has an iPhone, Palm (NSDQ: PALM) Pre or BlackBerry Tour, or whatever is the next smartphone device. The short answer is that we will need a lot more spectrum.” Qualcomm’s Co-Founder Irwin Mark Jacobs, and father of Paul Jacobs, Chairman and CEO, explained the situation scientifically. Paul Jacobs: “In the lab, we’ve done everything we know how to do to optimize spectrum. We have to use different tricks now.”

Anurag Patnaik, who works with mobile analytics tools at Openwave (NSDQ: OPWV), put the data surge into very practical terms. One smartphone equals 30 feature phones on a network, and one netbook or aircard equals 450 feature phones. Patnaik: “Carriers have to address the trend of bandwidth usage. The data tsunami is definitely happening. In four years, we’ll be consuming an exabyte (or one billion gigabytes) of data. It took the fixed internet eight years to achieve that,” he said.

While the problem has come out of the closet, it’s the solution that are still fairly hush-hush. Some of the constraints will be alleviated as higher capacity networks, like 4G, roll out. But likely something will have to happen sooner. For now, the leading possibility is that carriers will move away from the unlimited data packages that have been so popular and instead have a tiered system. Customers who pay premium prices will get more bandwidth. Others who choose to pay less, will have a restricted amount of usage, and pay a fee if they go over. Another solution is compressing video and other types of content during peak traffic periods.

The sticky part will be in changing consumer behavior and expectations. They have been trained to believe that they can eat as much as they want for a set price. Regulators may also play a role as they pursue net-neutrality like rules in the wireless industry. AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega said more regulation will only stifle innovation: “We believe in an open internet and a mobile internet that is free of regulation. We want to be part of constructive dialogue. Our strongest belief that consumers will access value and they will pick the winners and losers. The wireless industry is strong, thriving, innovative and open. Let’s keep it that way.”

Oct 9, 2009 12:00 PM ET

CTIA Keynotes: FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski; AT&T's CTO Jon Donovan; Qualcomm's Paul And Irwin Ja Photo: Tricia Duryee


Posted In: Legal, Regulatory, FCC, Companies, AT&T, Qualcomm

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